Irish Sea Level Change in the Atlantic Context

The island of Ireland, located at the edge of Europe, is in a vital position to study the changing Atlantic Ocean. It is crucial to understand the evolution of sea level through the centuries, as the past is the key to the future. In addition, 40% of the Irish population is located 5km from the coast thus, it is vital to understand what impact a change in sea level may have. As a result, the Marine Institute and the European Regional Development fund have invested €2 million for five years into its’ research.

The A4 project (Aigéin, Aeráid, agus athrú Atlantaigh—Oceans, Climate, and Atlantic Change) aims to examine ocean and climate changes in the Atlantic. The project targets three aspects of the Atlantic; its’ changing ocean dynamics, sea level changes and Irish decadal climate predictions.

In this talk, Maeve will discuss sea level change along the US Atlantic coast using the statistical approach of Gaussian Process models. These models are built in a Bayesian framework which uses prior information to capture the evolution of sea level change. The proxy data is collected as cores of salt-marsh sediment and is dated using biological and geochemical sea level indicators such as foraminifera.

By combining statistical models and raw proxy data, Maeve examines historic sea level which is pivotal for our understanding of current sea level. The results from Maeve’s models have shown that sea level rise has increased dramatically since the 20th century along the US Atlantic coast. The current sea level along North America’s east coast is the highest it has been in at least the last 15 centuries.

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